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Micron Technology, Inc.
Technology · Semiconductors · NASDAQ
126 candles · 6M · retrieved
Estimated fair value
292.60
Range
267.75–536.92
Price vs value
69% above
Model support
Value
69% above fair value
confidence low
Estimate momentum
tracking
trends after ~30 days
Next catalyst
MU earnings · 28d
earnings
Volatility
normal
regime
1M forecast
withheld
Value tells you the size of the gap; the other cells tell you what could close it — and when. A cheap stock without a catalyst can stay cheap.
Price trades 69% above the fair-value estimate — MU screens as materially overvalued. The 3 models disagree widely (dispersion 98.4%) — treat the range, not the midpoint, as the answer. A valuation gap is not a timing signal and currently has zero ranking weight.
Forward earnings lens
13.0x FY2026 P/E
EPS 73.37+866.6%23 analysts
Shown as context, not blended into fair value, while genuine point-in-time forward-multiple history accumulates.
Where estimates sit vs price 956.08
Not meaningful for this company type: excess returns model (financials), path-to-profitability (scenario), dividend discount model, total payout (dividends + net buybacks), p/ocf vs peer reits (ffo proxy).
Cheap or expensive — depending on the yardstick
Entry threshold
below 234.08(fair value 292.60 − 20%)
price is 308% above your threshold
A valuation threshold, not a timing signal — a cheap stock can keep falling. Alerts wire in when the notification substrate lands.
Estimate revisions: tracking since 2026-09-03 — trends appear after ~30 days of snapshots.
Company profile at a glance
Bars are scaled to documented anchors (e.g. 35% operating margin = full bar), not ranked against other companies. Each row stands on its own — there is no hidden total score.
Financials at a glance· latest reported year · 15y of statements
Revenue
$37.4B
+3% per year over the period
Operating margin
26.1%
5y average 9.7%
Free cash flow
$1.7B
4.5% of revenue
Net debt / EBITDA
0.3×
ROE
15.8%
net income ÷ equity
ROIC
12.9%
after-tax operating profit ÷ capital
Dividends paid
$522M
latest year
Where the revenue dollar went · FY2025
What the current price is assuming
No revenue-growth or margin assumption inside the model's sanity bounds justifies today's price of 956.08. Either the market expects something far outside historical experience, or the price has detached from fundamentals.
What the DCF is made of — present value by year (base case)
Which growth × margin combinations justify today's price
| margin ↓ / growth → | -5% | 0% | 5% | 10% | 15% | 20% | 25% | 30% | 35% | 40% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60% | ||||||||||
| 55% |
Price vs fair value through time
Fair value if assumptions move — discount rate × terminal growth
| discount rate ↓ | g 0% | g 1% | g 2% | g 3% | g 4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.2% | 54.83 | 55.65 | 56.68 | 58.06 | 59.95 |
| 9.7% | 43.06 | 43.03 | 43 | 42.96 | 42.9 |
| 10.2% | 32.78 |
Micron's Taiwan unions want a one-off bonus for fiscal 2026 that they size at about 83 months of salary per employee. From fiscal 2027, the unions want bonuses set at 15% of operating profit, paid quarterly.
Terminal value is 375% of the total — above 85%, so the long-run assumptions drive the answer more than the visible years. Solid years are consensus-anchored; lighter years fade to the stable rate.
| 50% |
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| 45% |
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| 35% |
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| 25% |
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| 15% |
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| 10% |
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| 5% |
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| 0% |
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Sage cells are the assumption pairs that make the model value equal today's price (±2%) — 1 of 100 combinations work. If they all sit at heroic growth or margins, the price is demanding.
— price · — fair value (band = bear–bull). Vintages accumulating since 2026-08-09 (recorded at compute time; no historical backfill).
| 32.13 |
| 31.34 |
| 30.32 |
| 28.98 |
| 10.7% | 23.76 | 22.67 | 21.34 | 19.65 | 17.46 |
|---|
| 11.2% | 15.84 | 14.43 | 12.71 | 10.57 | 7.85 |
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| 11.7% | 8.85 | 7.21 | 5.23 | 2.81 | — |
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| 12.2% | 2.66 | 0.87 | — | — | — |
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Cells compare each implied fair value with the current price 956.08: green above it, burgundy below. Outlined cell = base case.