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SPY · Latest session

PREVICT Research

Market State · 12 Dimensions

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PREVICT Model Performance

The track record loads as you approach this section.

Instrument	View	Interpretation
SPY	→ Neutral	The quantitative model is neutral: p_up=0.520868, expected_return=0.00024, q50=0.00024. Tuesday's tape shows broad small-cap-led risk-on with falling VIX, but the advance is rotation-led and the post-close trade-policy headlines are unreacted opening risks.
QQQ	→ Neutral	The quantitative model is neutral: p_up=0.47796, expected_return=-0.000463, q50=-0.000463. Megacap tech lagged despite the broad rally, and an active post-close chip-tariff headline leaves semis as the next-session swing factor.
BRENT	↑ Slight bullishANALYST VIEWlow confidence	No Brent print is supplied, so the read uses XLE +0.51%, a larger EIA crude draw (-4.45M vs -1.1M), and active Hormuz rhetoric. The renaming headline is not a supply loss but extends the geopolitical risk premium; confirmation requires energy-market follow-through.
GOLD	→ NeutralANALYST VIEWlow confidence	No gold or GLD quote is supplied. Falling VIX to 15.2 and a stable dollar-fx dimension weaken the inferred haven bid from geopolitical headlines, so the prior slight-bullish haven thesis is not confirmed. Iran-sanctions rhetoric is a forward setup, not an observed reaction.

Date	Time		Event	Actual	Est.	Prev.	Surp.
WED 2	12:15 UTC		ADP Employment Change (Aug)	38	47	46	-19.1%
WED 2	13:45 UTC		BoC Interest Rate Decision	2.25	2.25	2.25	0.0%
WED 2	07:00 UTC		Employment Change (Aug)	44.419	15.4	19.517	+188.4%
WED 2	18:00 UTC		Beige Book	—	—	—	—
WED 2	14:30 UTC		BoC Press Conference	—	—	—	—
WED 2	13:45 UTC		BoC Rate Statement	—	—	—	—
WED 2	13:30 UTC		Bundesbank Buch Speech	—	—	—	—
WED 2	10:30 UTC		Business Confidence (Q3)	38	34	39	+11.8%
WED 2	14:30 UTC		EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (Aug/28)	-4.45	-1.1	0.095	-304.5%
WED 2	14:30 UTC		EIA Gasoline Stocks Change (Aug/28)	-1.173	-1.9	-2.536	+38.3%
WED 2	14:00 UTC		Factory Orders MoM (Jul)	0.9	0.6	-0.2	+50.0%
WED 2	18:00 UTC		Fed Beige Book	—	—	—	—
WED 2	12:00 UTC		Industrial Production MoM (Jul)	0.2	1.2	-1.6	-83.3%
WED 2	11:00 UTC		MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (Aug/28)	6.79	—	6.78	—
WED 2	16:00 UTC	RU	Unemployment Rate (Jul)	2.3	2.2	2.2	+4.5%
THU 3	01:30 UTC		Balance of Trade (Jul)	—	1.4	1.929	—
THU 3	12:30 UTC		Continuing Jobless Claims (Aug/22)	—	1816	1778	—
THU 3	14:00 UTC		ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Aug)	—	54.2	54.1	—
THU 3	14:00 UTC		ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (Aug)	—	—	70.3	—
THU 3	14:00 UTC		ISM Services PMI (Aug)	—	54.3	54.1	—
THU 3	12:30 UTC		Initial Jobless Claims (Aug/29)	—	205	203	—
THU 3	12:30 UTC		Jobless Claims 4-Week Average (Aug/29)	—	205	205.5	—
THU 3	08:00 UTC		Balance of Trade (Aug)	—	-7	-7.34	—
THU 3	12:30 UTC		Balance of Trade (Jul)	—	3.6	3.86	—
THU 3	07:00 UTC		CPI MoM (Aug)	—	1.93	1.78	—
THU 3	06:30 UTC		CPI MoM (Aug)	—	0	-0.1	—
THU 3	07:00 UTC		CPI YoY (Aug)	—	31.62	31.75	—
THU 3	12:00 UTC		Consumer Confidence (Aug)	—	44.7	45	—
THU 3	12:30 UTC		Exports (Jul)	—	308.5	314.7	—
THU 3	19:00 UTC		Fed Hammack Speech	—	—	—	—
THU 3	12:30 UTC		Fed Waller Speech	—	—	—	—
THU 3	07:00 UTC		Gross Domestic Product QoQ (Q2)	—	1.5	0.7	—
THU 3	07:00 UTC		Gross Domestic Product YoY (Q2)	—	—	0.5	—
THU 3	23:30 UTC		Household Spending MoM (Jul)	—	2.6	-6.4	—
THU 3	23:30 UTC		Household Spending YoY (Jul)	—	-1.6	-3.3	—
THU 3	14:00 UTC		ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment (Aug)	—	—	47.4	—
THU 3	07:00 UTC		Inflation Rate YoY (Aug)	—	31.62	31.75	—
THU 3	06:30 UTC		Inflation Rate YoY (Aug)	—	0.5	0.4	—
THU 3	07:00 UTC	MY	Interest Rate	—	2.75	2.75	—
THU 3	05:15 UTC		RBA Hunter Speech	—	—	—	—
THU 3	01:00 UTC		RBA Jones Speech	—	—	—	—
THU 3	13:00 UTC		S&P Global Services PMI (Aug)	—	51	49.7	—
THU 3	07:45 UTC		S&P Global Services PMI (Aug)	—	53.6	52.5	—
THU 3	07:15 UTC		S&P Global Services PMI (Aug)	—	59	58.3	—
THU 3	01:45 UTC		S&P Global Services PMI (Aug)	—	50.6	50.4	—
FRI 4	08:30 UTC		CPI (Aug)	—	—	3	—
FRI 4	12:30 UTC		Employment Change (Aug)	—	15	75.1	—
FRI 4	14:00 UTC		Ivey PMI (Aug)	—	56.2	55.1	—
FRI 4	12:30 UTC		Non Farm Payrolls (Aug)	—	58	-23	—
FRI 4	12:30 UTC		Nonfarm Payrolls Private (Aug)	—	58	30	—

Date	Symbol	Name	Timing	EPS est.	Rev. est.	Surp.
Wed 2 Sep	ANCTF	ANCTF	—	$0.90	$20.9B	—
Wed 2 Sep	AVGO	AVGO	—	$3.22	$29.2B	+3.1%
Wed 2 Sep	BF-A	BF-A	—	$0.37	$915.2M	—
Wed 2 Sep	BF-B	BF-B	—	$0.38	$914.8M	—
Wed 2 Sep	FDXF	FDXF	—	$1.34	$2.3B	—
Wed 2 Sep	FIVE	FIVE	—	$1.40	$1.2B	+20.0%
Wed 2 Sep	HPE	HPE	—	$0.93	$12.0B	-100.0%
Wed 2 Sep	NTAP	NTAP	—	$2.12	$1.8B	-100.0%
Wed 2 Sep	SNOW	SNOW	—	$0.45	$1.5B	—
Wed 2 Sep	AAUGF	AAUGF	—	$-0.74	—	—
Wed 2 Sep	ADTX	ADTX	—	$-224553600000.00	$1.0M	—
Wed 2 Sep	AEPLF	AEPLF	—	$0.12	$249.7M	—
Wed 2 Sep	AGX	AGX	—	$2.64	$300.5M	-100.0%
Wed 2 Sep	AI	AI	—	$-0.26	$52.1M	+23.2%
Wed 2 Sep	ALAR	ALAR	—	$0.02	$12.2M	—
Wed 2 Sep	AMST	AMST	—	$-0.96	$250,000	—
Wed 2 Sep	ANAB	ANAB	—	$-0.41	$6.7M	—
Wed 2 Sep	APMD	APMD	—	$-0.49	—	—
Wed 2 Sep	APNHF	APNHF	—	—	—	—
Wed 2 Sep	APNHY	APNHY	—	—	—	—
Wed 2 Sep	ARBB	ARBB	—	$-2.14	$36.5M	—
Wed 2 Sep	ARBK	ARBK	—	$61.25	$35.3M	—
Wed 2 Sep	ATCH	ATCH	—	$-0.01	—	—
Wed 2 Sep	ATCHW	ATCHW	—	$-0.01	$5.1M	—
Wed 2 Sep	ATOGF	ATOGF	—	$0.14	$2.7B	—
Wed 2 Sep	ATTO	ATTO	—	$-0.63	—	—
Wed 2 Sep	BCMRF	BCMRF	—	—	—	—
Wed 2 Sep	BLSM	BLSM	—	$-0.93	—	—
Wed 2 Sep	BNET	BNET	—	$0.04	$26.2M	—
Wed 2 Sep	BNR	BNR	—	$-2.29	$19.2M	—
Wed 2 Sep	BRVE	BRVE	—	$2.69	—	—
Wed 2 Sep	CDNMF	CDNMF	—	—	—	—
Wed 2 Sep	CGLCF	CGLCF	—	$-0.01	—	—
Wed 2 Sep	CHPT	CHPT	—	$-1.57	$105.2M	-100.0%
Wed 2 Sep	CHSTF	CHSTF	—	—	—	—
Wed 2 Sep	CRML	CRML	—	$-0.07	$6.0M	—
Wed 2 Sep	CRMLW	CRMLW	—	$-0.07	—	—
Wed 2 Sep	CSHRW	CSHRW	—	$0.10	$35.7M	—
Wed 2 Sep	CUBXF	CUBXF	—	$-0.16	$7.0M	—
Wed 2 Sep	CVAT	CVAT	—	$0.00	$522,997	—
Wed 2 Sep	CWSFF	CWSFF	—	$-0.12	$1.2M	—
Wed 2 Sep	CXM	CXM	—	$0.10	$214.4M	+5.8%
Wed 2 Sep	DAKT	DAKT	—	$0.35	$230.3M	+15.4%
Wed 2 Sep	DGNOF	DGNOF	—	$-0.01	$49,329	—
Wed 2 Sep	DOLHF	DOLHF	—	—	—	—
Wed 2 Sep	ECAOF	ECAOF	—	—	—	—
Wed 2 Sep	ECRAF	ECRAF	—	$0.05	$31.9M	—
Wed 2 Sep	ECVTF	ECVTF	—	—	—	—
Wed 2 Sep	EMOTF	EMOTF	—	—	—	—
Wed 2 Sep	EUDAW	EUDAW	—	$0.40	$9.6M	—

Contract	Tracked outcome	24h	Volume
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? ↗	Yes 55%	-3.0 pp	$1.2M
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? ↗	Yes 66%	-1.0 pp	$574K
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? ↗	Yes 89%	No 24h change	$7.9M
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? ↗	Yes 8%	-1.0 pp	$2.7M
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? ↗	Yes 2%	-0.1 pp	$2.9M
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? ↗	Yes 1%	-0.3 pp	$2.7M
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? ↗	Yes 0%	No 24h change	$2.6M
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? ↗	Yes 0%	-0.1 pp	$2.9M
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? ↗	Yes 0%	No 24h change	$4.0M
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? ↗	Yes 0%	No 24h change	$3.3M
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? ↗	Yes 0%	No 24h change	$3.3M
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? ↗	Yes 0%	No 24h change	$4.3M
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? ↗	Yes 0%	No 24h change	$4.9M
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? ↗	Yes 0%	No 24h change	$5.3M
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? ↗	Yes 0%	No 24h change	$3.8M

Contract	Tracked outcome	24h	Volume
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? ↗	Yes 55%	-3.0 pp	$1.2M
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? ↗	Yes 66%	-1.0 pp	$574K
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? ↗	Yes 89%	No 24h change	$7.9M
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? ↗	Yes 8%	-1.0 pp	$2.7M
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? ↗	Yes 2%	-0.1 pp	$2.9M
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? ↗	Yes 1%	-0.3 pp	$2.7M
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? ↗	Yes 0%	No 24h change	$2.6M
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? ↗	Yes 0%	-0.1 pp	$2.9M
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? ↗	Yes 0%	No 24h change	$4.0M
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? ↗	Yes 0%	No 24h change	$3.3M
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? ↗	Yes 0%	No 24h change	$3.3M
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? ↗	Yes 0%	No 24h change	$4.3M
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? ↗	Yes 0%	No 24h change	$4.9M
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? ↗	Yes 0%	No 24h change	$5.3M
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? ↗	Yes 0%	No 24h change	$3.8M

Upcoming Catalysts

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Slight bullish bias

Small-cap-led rally meets post-close tariff and Hormuz headlines

Forecast Board

World & market-moving news

US Treasury Secretary Bessent: Budget gap rose this year due to $70b tariff refunds.

US Commerce Secretary Lutnick: Chip tariffs aimed at boosting US chip output.

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China Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang: Leadership of two heads of state crucial to unshakable China-Russia ties amid turbulent global climate - Xinhua

China vice premier Ding Xuexiang: prospects for expanding China-Russia Far East development ties are broad and promising - Xinhua

China vice premier Ding Xuexiang meets Russia’s Putin in Vladivostok: Xinhua

Japan S&P Global August services PMI at 52.5 (vs flash 52.3)

Hong Kong S&P Global August PMI falls to 49.5 from 51.0 in July

Japanese Composite PMI Final Actual 53.5 (Forecast -, Previous 53.4)

Japanese Services PMI Actual 52.5 (Forecast -, Previous 52.3)

China PBOC seen setting yuan midpoint at 6.7167 per dollar: estimate

Ireland S&P Global August services PMI at 55.4 vs 55.2 in July

Foreign Investment Japanese Bonds Actual 509.1B (Forecast -, Previous 435.2B)

Japanese Foreign Stock Investment Actual 35.8B (Forecast -, Previous -869.0B)

Foreign Investment Japanese Stocks Actual 35.8B (Forecast -, Previous -764.1B)

Japanese Foreign Bond Investment Actual -824.0B (Forecast -, Previous -1,978.4B)

TRUMP: WANT TO DO SUMMIT WITH RUSSIA'S PUTIN WHEN WE'RE READY TO DO A PEACE DEAL ON UKRAINE

TRUMP: CONTROLLING HORMUZ STRAIT

TRUMP: CONTROLLING HORMUZ STRAIT

TRUMP ON IRAN: IRAN WAS TRYING TO BUILD A ROCKET THAT DROPS MINES; WE TOOK IT OUT

TRUMP: OIL PRICES WILL COME DOWN

WHITE HOUSE SAYS THAT BARRELS FROM VENEZUELA DEAL COULD HIT RESERVES IN U.S. IN NOVEMBER

TRUMP FLOATS RENAMING HORMUZ STRAIT AFTER HIMSELF

GOLDMAN FAVORS STOCKS AS CREDIT RISKS RISE

YARDENI: SEPTEMBER STOCK WEAKNESS COULD BE A BUYING OPPORTUNITY

IRAN'S CURRENCY DROPS TO RECORD LOW OF OVER 2.2 MILLION RIALS TO THE U.S. DOLLAR - TRACKING WEBSITES

LUTNICK SAYS ANTHROPIC IS 'BACK ON THE RIGHT SIDE' WITH TRUMP ADMINISTRATION - AXIOS

SEPTEMBER FED DECISION IS A 'GENUINE COIN FLIP', IMPAX ASSET MANAGEMENT SAYS

Market News

Market State

Market State

Forecast Board

China Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang: Leadership of two heads of state crucial to unshakable China-Russia ties amid turbulent global climate - Xinhua

China vice premier Ding Xuexiang: prospects for expanding China-Russia Far East development ties are broad and promising - Xinhua

China vice premier Ding Xuexiang meets Russia’s Putin in Vladivostok: Xinhua

Japan S&P Global August services PMI at 52.5 (vs flash 52.3)

Hong Kong S&P Global August PMI falls to 49.5 from 51.0 in July

Japanese Composite PMI Final Actual 53.5 (Forecast -, Previous 53.4)

Japanese Services PMI Actual 52.5 (Forecast -, Previous 52.3)

China PBOC seen setting yuan midpoint at 6.7167 per dollar: estimate

Ireland S&P Global August services PMI at 55.4 vs 55.2 in July

Foreign Investment Japanese Bonds Actual 509.1B (Forecast -, Previous 435.2B)

Japanese Foreign Stock Investment Actual 35.8B (Forecast -, Previous -869.0B)

Foreign Investment Japanese Stocks Actual 35.8B (Forecast -, Previous -764.1B)

Japanese Foreign Bond Investment Actual -824.0B (Forecast -, Previous -1,978.4B)

TRUMP: WANT TO DO SUMMIT WITH RUSSIA'S PUTIN WHEN WE'RE READY TO DO A PEACE DEAL ON UKRAINE

TRUMP: CONTROLLING HORMUZ STRAIT

TRUMP: CONTROLLING HORMUZ STRAIT

TRUMP ON IRAN: IRAN WAS TRYING TO BUILD A ROCKET THAT DROPS MINES; WE TOOK IT OUT

TRUMP: OIL PRICES WILL COME DOWN

WHITE HOUSE SAYS THAT BARRELS FROM VENEZUELA DEAL COULD HIT RESERVES IN U.S. IN NOVEMBER

TRUMP FLOATS RENAMING HORMUZ STRAIT AFTER HIMSELF

GOLDMAN FAVORS STOCKS AS CREDIT RISKS RISE

YARDENI: SEPTEMBER STOCK WEAKNESS COULD BE A BUYING OPPORTUNITY

IRAN'S CURRENCY DROPS TO RECORD LOW OF OVER 2.2 MILLION RIALS TO THE U.S. DOLLAR - TRACKING WEBSITES

LUTNICK SAYS ANTHROPIC IS 'BACK ON THE RIGHT SIDE' WITH TRUMP ADMINISTRATION - AXIOS

SEPTEMBER FED DECISION IS A 'GENUINE COIN FLIP', IMPAX ASSET MANAGEMENT SAYS

Market News