Previct Terminal: Live AI Market Forecasts for SPY, QQQ, Gold & Oil | Previct.ai

Daily bias

Slight bullish bias

55%↑

BEARISHNEUTRALBULLISH

SPY chance of a gain from Mon 09:00 UTCUpdated throughout the trading day

Market Brief

Published Sat 31 Oct · 01:41 UTC

Intel credit swaps hit record; chip rout leaves Monday's open uncertain

US cash markets are closed after a tech-led selloff Friday that left the S&P 500 down 1.8% while chip shares fell far harder and the VIX added 13%. Credit was the sharper signal: Intel's five-year credit default swap widened to a record 123.5 basis points in its largest one-day move since 2022, and S&P revised Meta's outlook to negative on cash flow and capex, sharpening scrutiny of how the AI build-out is financed. Energy and staples rose, so the damage stayed concentrated. Semiconductor perpetual contracts firmed modestly after hours, pointing to partial relief rather than fresh selling at Monday's open, though China's October factory PMI at 49.3 counsels caution. Monday looks choppy with a mild upward bias if chip stabilisation holds; the week stays fragile into Apple and AMD results and payrolls. This outlook would change if semis turn decisively lower at Monday's open.

Full analysis

Technical analysis

Updated Sat 31 Oct · 01:40 UTC

Tape: Friday's cash session was a concentrated unwind: SMH −6.98% and XLK −4.89% against SPY −1.77%, while energy, staples and healthcare rose and the VIX gained 12.91% to 19.42.

Interpretation: The strongest hypothesis is single-name credit stress transmitting through the AI-capex complex — Intel's five-year CDS widened to a record 123.5bp in its largest one-day move since 2022, while S&P's negative Meta outlook on cash flow and capex applied financing scrutiny to the same spending chain. Korea's chip-heavy cash market fell 3.91%, corroborating the semiconductor read. Prices imply a higher funding cost for capex-heavy technology rather than a broad growth scare; margin balances and positioning are unmeasured, so flow amplification is unconfirmed.

Regime tension: Market State is 8-of-10 risk-adverse (growth −100, credit −86), confirming the defensive rotation, yet credit is scored stable while one issuer's CDS prints a record — the unresolved residual is whether that stress stays idiosyncratic; rates +93.8 and breadth +70.4 cut against the risk-off read.

Near-term setup: Hyperliquid perpetual contracts in the window from 30 Oct 15:58 to 21:37 EDT were firmer — semiconductor median +0.74% with 12 of 13 contracts up, S&P 500 reference +0.12% — favouring partial relief over continuation at Monday's open. Across the next two to five sessions, with ISM, AMD and Apple results and payrolls due, asymmetry is two-way and headline-driven, with QQQ the weak leg.

Key risk: A further Intel CDS widening or a semiconductor rating action would convert idiosyncratic stress into sector funding risk; Monday's ISM release and AMD's guidance are the nearest observable tests. North Korea's restated rejection of sanctions is a haven-demand input for gold rather than an earnings catalyst.

Daily bias

Slight bullish bias

55%↑

BEARISHNEUTRALBULLISH

SPY chance of a gain from Mon 09:00 UTCUpdated throughout the trading day

Strongest drivers

01Record Intel CDS widening pressured chip shares
Intel's five-year credit default swap widened to a record 123.5bp on Friday, the same session SMH fell 6.98%; timing fits, but sector-wide causation is not proven.
02AI capex financing scrutiny after Meta outlook cut
S&P revised Meta's outlook to negative on cash flow and capex concerns, reported after Friday's cash close, alongside deep weakness in AI-linked technology shares.
Read source ↗

Next catalyst

Exports YoY (Oct)

in 22hSun 00:00 UTC

est 93.2 · prev 83.7

GDP Growth Rate YoY (Q3)
in 28h · Sun 06:00 UTC · est -5.8 · prev -4.7
Retail Sales MoM (Sep)
in 2d · Mon 07:00 UTC · est 0.5 · prev 1.3

Primary risk

Event risk

High

-50.0/ ±100

First US data after the chip selloff

Expected market path

Stocks · commodities · rates · FX when evidence supports them1 more in full analysis ↓

BaseA soft open that steadies, with defensive and energy leadership holding while semiconductors stop falling.

TailA credit-driven second leg lower in technology drags the broad index down and the VIX back toward its intraday peak.

BaseNasdaq-100 lags the broad market at Monday's open, with semiconductors the weak leg.

TailA strong AMD or Apple result squeezes heavily sold semis and pushes the index sharply higher.

BaseBrent holds its range without a fresh bid as softer Chinese demand signals offset energy-sector leadership.

TailA supply headline or a demand scare pulls crude sharply lower while energy equities lag.

BaseGold holds a mild upward bias as a credit-stress hedge, helped by softer German inflation easing real-rate pressure.

TailA risk-asset relief rally drains the haven bid, or a hawkish policy surprise lifts real yields and pressures gold.

Earnings Signals

History:17 bullish3 bearish

10-session results accumulating

Since publication, frozen after 10 trading sessions (about two weeks). First call per company and strategy; updates do not reset the entry.

CARAG · published calls

16 calls · 0 completed · 1 tracking · 15 unpriced · 13 Bullish / 3 Bearish

PEAD · published calls

7 calls · 0 completed · 7 tracking · 0 unpriced · 7 Bullish / 0 Bearish

PEAD · published calls

26 calls · 0 completed · 26 tracking · 0 unpriced · 23 Bullish / 3 Bearish

PEAD · historical calls

8 calls · 0 completed · 8 tracking · 0 unpriced · 7 Bullish / 1 Bearish

20 bps cost illustration, before short borrow. These are average call returns for the events in this view, not an account return. Open and unpriced calls are not counted as completed wins or losses.

Neutral-book research and retrospective backtests are separate strategies and are excluded here.

Separate official record · 15 sessions, next-open entry: no resolved calls yet.

FSLRIssued Fri 30 OctOriginal view: Bearish
Revenue missed estimates by 4.5%; fresh reaction -1.4%.
Return so far · freezes 13 Nov+0.03%
FSLRIssued Fri 30 Oct
Original view: Bearish
Revenue missed estimates by 4.5%; fresh reaction -1.4%.
Return so far · freezes 13 Nov+0.03%-0.17% after costs
Revenue missed estimates by 4.5%; fresh reaction -1.4%.
1D—
3D—
7D—
Signal history & returns
Model view: Bearishlatest stage
Revenue missed estimates by 4.5%; fresh reaction -1.4%.
Signal issued Fri 30 Oct · 13:50 UTC · Market reaction became available
low evidence · delayed data
Revenue missed estimates by 4.5%; fresh reaction -1.4%.
Since signal +0.03%After costs -0.17%
Simulated entry at publication price · Fri 30 Oct · 13:50 UTC · latest mark Fri 30 Oct · 20:00 UTC · delayed
1 governed evidence reference
CVXIssued Fri 30 OctOriginal view: Bullish
EPS beat estimates by 8.6%; Revenue beat estimates by 6.4%; fresh reaction +1.1%.
Return so far · freezes 12 Nov+0.65%
CVXIssued Fri 30 Oct
Original view: Bullish
EPS beat estimates by 8.6%; Revenue beat estimates by 6.4%; fresh reaction +1.1%.
Return so far · freezes 12 Nov+0.65%+0.45% after costs
EPS beat estimates by 8.6%; Revenue beat estimates by 6.4%; fresh reaction +1.1%.
1D—
3D—
7D—
Signal history & returns
Model view: Bullishlatest stage
EPS beat estimates by 8.6%; Revenue beat estimates by 6.4%; fresh reaction +1.1%.
Signal issued Fri 30 Oct · 10:30 UTC · Market reaction became available
low evidence · delayed data
EPS beat estimates by 8.6%; Revenue beat estimates by 6.4%; fresh reaction +1.1%.
Since signal +0.65%After costs +0.45%
Simulated entry at publication price · Fri 30 Oct · 10:27 UTC · latest mark Fri 30 Oct · 20:02 UTC · delayed
1 governed evidence reference
LHIssued Thu 29 OctOriginal view: Bullish
EPS beat estimates by 3.0%; Revenue beat estimates by 1.4%; guidance raised; fresh reaction +8.9%.
Return so far · freezes 12 Nov+0.21%
LHIssued Thu 29 Oct
Original view: Bullish
EPS beat estimates by 3.0%; Revenue beat estimates by 1.4%; guidance raised; fresh reaction +8.9%.
Return so far · freezes 12 Nov+0.21%+0.01% after costs
EPS beat estimates by 3.0%; Revenue beat estimates by 1.4%; guidance raised; fresh reaction +8.9%.
1D—
3D—
7D—
Signal history & returns
Model view: Bullishlatest stage
EPS beat estimates by 3.0%; Revenue beat estimates by 1.4%; guidance raised; fresh reaction +8.9%.
Signal issued Thu 29 Oct · 14:37 UTC · Market reaction became available
low evidence · delayed data
EPS beat estimates by 3.0%; Revenue beat estimates by 1.4%; guidance raised; fresh reaction +8.9%.
Since signal +0.21%After costs +0.01%
Simulated entry at publication price · Thu 29 Oct · 14:36 UTC · latest mark Fri 30 Oct · 20:00 UTC · delayed
1 governed evidence reference
PWRIssued Thu 29 OctOriginal view: Bullish
EPS beat estimates by 20.7%; Revenue beat estimates by 8.8%; guidance raised; fresh reaction +7.1%.
Return so far · freezes 12 Nov-4.46%
PWRIssued Thu 29 Oct
Original view: Bullish
EPS beat estimates by 20.7%; Revenue beat estimates by 8.8%; guidance raised; fresh reaction +7.1%.
Return so far · freezes 12 Nov-4.46%-4.66% after costs
EPS beat estimates by 20.7%; Revenue beat estimates by 8.8%; guidance raised; fresh reaction +7.1%.
1D—
3D—
7D—
Signal history & returns
Model view: Bullishlatest stage
EPS beat estimates by 20.7%; Revenue beat estimates by 8.8%; guidance raised; fresh reaction +7.1%.
Signal issued Thu 29 Oct · 14:36 UTC · Market reaction became available
low evidence · delayed data
EPS beat estimates by 20.7%; Revenue beat estimates by 8.8%; guidance raised; fresh reaction +7.1%.
Since signal -4.46%After costs -4.66%
Simulated entry at publication price · Thu 29 Oct · 14:36 UTC · latest mark Fri 30 Oct · 20:00 UTC · delayed
1 governed evidence reference
VICIIssued Thu 29 OctOriginal view: Bullish
Revenue beat estimates by 3.8%; guidance raised; fresh reaction +3.2%.
Return so far · freezes 12 Nov+0.78%
VICIIssued Thu 29 Oct
Original view: Bullish
Revenue beat estimates by 3.8%; guidance raised; fresh reaction +3.2%.
Return so far · freezes 12 Nov+0.78%+0.58% after costs
Revenue beat estimates by 3.8%; guidance raised; fresh reaction +3.2%.
1D—
3D—
7D—
Signal history & returns
Model view: Bullishlatest stage
Revenue beat estimates by 3.8%; guidance raised; fresh reaction +3.2%.
Signal issued Thu 29 Oct · 14:35 UTC · Market reaction became available
low evidence · delayed data
Revenue beat estimates by 3.8%; guidance raised; fresh reaction +3.2%.
Since signal +0.78%After costs +0.58%
Simulated entry at publication price · Thu 29 Oct · 14:35 UTC · latest mark Fri 30 Oct · 20:00 UTC · delayed
1 governed evidence reference
TXTIssued Thu 29 OctOriginal view: Bullish
EPS beat estimates by 23.1%; guidance raised; fresh reaction +12.2%.
Return so far · freezes 12 Nov-2.50%
TXTIssued Thu 29 Oct
Original view: Bullish
EPS beat estimates by 23.1%; guidance raised; fresh reaction +12.2%.
Return so far · freezes 12 Nov-2.50%-2.70% after costs
EPS beat estimates by 23.1%; guidance raised; fresh reaction +12.2%.
1D—
3D—
7D—
Signal history & returns
Model view: Bullishlatest stage
EPS beat estimates by 23.1%; guidance raised; fresh reaction +12.2%.
Signal issued Thu 29 Oct · 14:32 UTC · Market reaction became available
low evidence · delayed data
EPS beat estimates by 23.1%; guidance raised; fresh reaction +12.2%.
Since signal -2.50%After costs -2.70%
Simulated entry at publication price · Thu 29 Oct · 14:32 UTC · latest mark Fri 30 Oct · 20:00 UTC · delayed
1 governed evidence reference
LNGIssued Thu 29 OctOriginal view: Bullish
Revenue beat estimates by 14.0%; fresh reaction +3.9%.
Return so far · freezes 12 Nov+6.78%
LNGIssued Thu 29 Oct
Original view: Bullish
Revenue beat estimates by 14.0%; fresh reaction +3.9%.
Return so far · freezes 12 Nov+6.78%+6.58% after costs
Revenue beat estimates by 14.0%; fresh reaction +3.9%.
1D—
3D—
7D—
Signal history & returns
Model view: Bullishlatest stage
Revenue beat estimates by 14.0%; fresh reaction +3.9%.
Signal issued Thu 29 Oct · 14:30 UTC · Market reaction became available
low evidence · delayed data
Revenue beat estimates by 14.0%; fresh reaction +3.9%.
Since signal +6.78%After costs +6.58%
Simulated entry at publication price · Thu 29 Oct · 14:30 UTC · latest mark Fri 30 Oct · 20:00 UTC · delayed
1 governed evidence reference
SWIssued Thu 29 OctOriginal view: Bearish
Revenue missed estimates by 1.6%; guidance lowered; fresh reaction -1.6%.
Return so far · freezes 12 Nov-1.76%
SWIssued Thu 29 Oct
Original view: Bearish
Revenue missed estimates by 1.6%; guidance lowered; fresh reaction -1.6%.
Return so far · freezes 12 Nov-1.76%-1.96% after costs
Revenue missed estimates by 1.6%; guidance lowered; fresh reaction -1.6%.
1D—
3D—
7D—
Signal history & returns
Model view: Bearishlatest stage
Revenue missed estimates by 1.6%; guidance lowered; fresh reaction -1.6%.
Signal issued Thu 29 Oct · 13:51 UTC · Market reaction became available
low evidence · delayed data
Revenue missed estimates by 1.6%; guidance lowered; fresh reaction -1.6%.
Since signal -1.76%After costs -1.96%
Simulated entry at publication price · Thu 29 Oct · 13:51 UTC · latest mark Fri 30 Oct · 19:44 UTC · delayed
1 governed evidence reference
MKLIssued Thu 29 OctOriginal view: Bullish
Revenue beat estimates by 8.8%; fresh reaction +1.9%.
Return so far · freezes 12 Nov-0.50%
MKLIssued Thu 29 Oct
Original view: Bullish
Revenue beat estimates by 8.8%; fresh reaction +1.9%.
Return so far · freezes 12 Nov-0.50%-0.70% after costs
Revenue beat estimates by 8.8%; fresh reaction +1.9%.
1D—
3D—
7D—
Signal history & returns
Model view: Bullishlatest stage
Revenue beat estimates by 8.8%; fresh reaction +1.9%.
Signal issued Thu 29 Oct · 13:40 UTC · Market reaction became available
low evidence · delayed data
Revenue beat estimates by 8.8%; fresh reaction +1.9%.
Since signal -0.50%After costs -0.70%
Simulated entry at publication price · Thu 29 Oct · 13:40 UTC · latest mark Fri 30 Oct · 18:47 UTC · delayed
1 governed evidence reference
F-PBIssued Thu 29 OctOriginal view: Bullish
Revenue beat estimates by 1.1%; guidance raised; fresh reaction +0.4%.
Return so far · freezes 12 Nov+0.16%
F-PBIssued Thu 29 Oct
Original view: Bullish
Revenue beat estimates by 1.1%; guidance raised; fresh reaction +0.4%.
Return so far · freezes 12 Nov+0.16%-0.04% after costs
Revenue beat estimates by 1.1%; guidance raised; fresh reaction +0.4%.
1D—
3D—
7D—
Signal history & returns
Model view: Bullishlatest stage
Revenue beat estimates by 1.1%; guidance raised; fresh reaction +0.4%.
Signal issued Thu 29 Oct · 13:33 UTC · Market reaction became available
low evidence · delayed data
Revenue beat estimates by 1.1%; guidance raised; fresh reaction +0.4%.
Since signal +0.16%After costs -0.04%
Simulated entry at publication price · Thu 29 Oct · 13:31 UTC · latest mark Fri 30 Oct · 19:32 UTC · delayed
1 governed evidence reference
ENTGIssued Thu 29 OctOriginal view: Bullish
EPS beat estimates by 19.4%; Revenue beat estimates by 8.7%; guidance raised; one-time EPS benefit identified; fresh reaction +1.7%.
Return so far · freezes 11 Nov-6.18%
ENTGIssued Thu 29 Oct
Original view: Bullish
EPS beat estimates by 19.4%; Revenue beat estimates by 8.7%; guidance raised; one-time EPS benefit identified; fresh reaction +1.7%.
Return so far · freezes 11 Nov-6.18%-6.38% after costs
EPS beat estimates by 19.4%; Revenue beat estimates by 8.7%; guidance raised; one-time EPS benefit identified; fresh reaction +1.7%.
1D—
3D—
7D—
Signal history & returns
Model view: Bullishlatest stage
EPS beat estimates by 19.4%; Revenue beat estimates by 8.7%; guidance raised; one-time EPS benefit identified; fresh reaction +1.7%.
Signal issued Thu 29 Oct · 13:28 UTC · Market reaction became available
low evidence · delayed data
EPS beat estimates by 19.4%; Revenue beat estimates by 8.7%; guidance raised; one-time EPS benefit identified; fresh reaction +1.7%.
Since signal -6.18%After costs -6.38%
Simulated entry at publication price · Thu 29 Oct · 13:26 UTC · latest mark Fri 30 Oct · 18:47 UTC · delayed
1 governed evidence reference
MOIssued Thu 29 OctOriginal view: Bullish
Revenue beat estimates by 15.4%; guidance raised; fresh reaction +1.0%.
Return so far · freezes 11 Nov+6.39%
MOIssued Thu 29 Oct
Original view: Bullish
Revenue beat estimates by 15.4%; guidance raised; fresh reaction +1.0%.
Return so far · freezes 11 Nov+6.39%+6.19% after costs
Revenue beat estimates by 15.4%; guidance raised; fresh reaction +1.0%.
1D—
3D—
7D—
Signal history & returns
Model view: Bullishlatest stage
Revenue beat estimates by 15.4%; guidance raised; fresh reaction +1.0%.
Signal issued Thu 29 Oct · 12:12 UTC · Market reaction became available
low evidence · delayed data
Revenue beat estimates by 15.4%; guidance raised; fresh reaction +1.0%.
Since signal +6.39%After costs +6.19%
Simulated entry at publication price · Thu 29 Oct · 12:09 UTC · latest mark Fri 30 Oct · 18:29 UTC · delayed
1 governed evidence reference
APHIssued Wed 28 OctOriginal view: Bullish
Revenue beat estimates by 7.8%; guidance raised; one-time EPS benefit identified; fresh reaction +2.9%.
Return so far · freezes 11 Nov-1.50%
APHIssued Wed 28 Oct
Original view: Bullish
Revenue beat estimates by 7.8%; guidance raised; one-time EPS benefit identified; fresh reaction +2.9%.
Return so far · freezes 11 Nov-1.50%-1.70% after costs
Revenue beat estimates by 7.8%; guidance raised; one-time EPS benefit identified; fresh reaction +2.9%.
1D—
3D—
7D—
Signal history & returns
Model view: Bullishlatest stage
Revenue beat estimates by 7.8%; guidance raised; one-time EPS benefit identified; fresh reaction +2.9%.
Signal issued Wed 28 Oct · 14:34 UTC · Market reaction became available
low evidence · delayed data
Revenue beat estimates by 7.8%; guidance raised; one-time EPS benefit identified; fresh reaction +2.9%.
Since signal -1.50%After costs -1.70%
Simulated entry at publication price · Wed 28 Oct · 14:34 UTC · latest mark Fri 30 Oct · 20:00 UTC · delayed
1 governed evidence reference
BIIBIssued Wed 28 OctOriginal view: Bullish
EPS beat estimates by 32.3%; Revenue beat estimates by 6.3%; guidance raised; fresh reaction +0.5%.
Return so far · freezes 11 Nov-0.14%
BIIBIssued Wed 28 Oct
Original view: Bullish
EPS beat estimates by 32.3%; Revenue beat estimates by 6.3%; guidance raised; fresh reaction +0.5%.
Return so far · freezes 11 Nov-0.14%-0.34% after costs
EPS beat estimates by 32.3%; Revenue beat estimates by 6.3%; guidance raised; fresh reaction +0.5%.
1D—
3D—
7D—
Signal history & returns
Model view: Bullishlatest stage
EPS beat estimates by 32.3%; Revenue beat estimates by 6.3%; guidance raised; fresh reaction +0.5%.
Signal issued Wed 28 Oct · 13:39 UTC · Market reaction became available
low evidence · delayed data
EPS beat estimates by 32.3%; Revenue beat estimates by 6.3%; guidance raised; fresh reaction +0.5%.
Since signal -0.14%After costs -0.34%
Simulated entry at publication price · Wed 28 Oct · 13:39 UTC · latest mark Fri 30 Oct · 20:00 UTC · delayed
1 governed evidence reference
GEVIssued Wed 28 OctOriginal view: Bullish
Revenue beat estimates by 5.1%; guidance raised; one-time EPS benefit identified; fresh reaction +1.7%.
Return so far · freezes 10 Nov-5.74%
GEVIssued Wed 28 Oct
Original view: Bullish
Revenue beat estimates by 5.1%; guidance raised; one-time EPS benefit identified; fresh reaction +1.7%.
Return so far · freezes 10 Nov-5.74%-5.94% after costs
Revenue beat estimates by 5.1%; guidance raised; one-time EPS benefit identified; fresh reaction +1.7%.
1D—
3D—
7D—
Signal history & returns
Model view: Bullishlatest stage
Revenue beat estimates by 5.1%; guidance raised; one-time EPS benefit identified; fresh reaction +1.7%.
Signal issued Wed 28 Oct · 10:29 UTC · Market reaction became available
low evidence · delayed data
Revenue beat estimates by 5.1%; guidance raised; one-time EPS benefit identified; fresh reaction +1.7%.
Since signal -5.74%After costs -5.94%
Simulated entry at publication price · Wed 28 Oct · 10:29 UTC · latest mark Fri 30 Oct · 20:00 UTC · delayed
1 governed evidence reference
CNPIssued Tue 27 OctOriginal view: Bullish
EPS beat estimates by 6.5%; guidance raised; fresh reaction +1.8%.
Return so far · freezes 10 Nov+1.42%
CNPIssued Tue 27 Oct
Original view: Bullish
EPS beat estimates by 6.5%; guidance raised; fresh reaction +1.8%.
Return so far · freezes 10 Nov+1.42%+1.22% after costs
EPS beat estimates by 6.5%; guidance raised; fresh reaction +1.8%.
1D-0.9%
3D—
7D—
Signal history & returns
Model view: Bullishlatest stage
EPS beat estimates by 6.5%; guidance raised; fresh reaction +1.8%.
Signal issued Tue 27 Oct · 13:32 UTC · Market reaction became available
low evidence · delayed data
EPS beat estimates by 6.5%; guidance raised; fresh reaction +1.8%.
Since signal +1.42%After costs +1.22%
Simulated entry at publication price · Tue 27 Oct · 13:32 UTC · latest mark Fri 30 Oct · 17:53 UTC · delayed
1 governed evidence reference
TRUIssued Tue 27 OctOriginal view: Bullish
Revenue beat estimates by 0.4%; guidance raised; fresh reaction -0.2%.
Return so far · freezes 10 Nov-3.42%
TRUIssued Tue 27 Oct
Original view: Bullish
Revenue beat estimates by 0.4%; guidance raised; fresh reaction -0.2%.
Return so far · freezes 10 Nov-3.42%-3.62% after costs
Revenue beat estimates by 0.4%; guidance raised; fresh reaction -0.2%.
1D-6.5%
3D—
7D—
Signal history & returns
Model view: Bullishlatest stage
Revenue beat estimates by 0.4%; guidance raised; fresh reaction -0.2%.
Signal issued Tue 27 Oct · 13:31 UTC · Market reaction became available
low evidence · delayed data
Revenue beat estimates by 0.4%; guidance raised; fresh reaction -0.2%.
Since signal -3.42%After costs -3.62%
Simulated entry at publication price · Tue 27 Oct · 13:31 UTC · latest mark Fri 30 Oct · 17:53 UTC · delayed
1 governed evidence reference
IQVIssued Tue 27 OctOriginal view: Bullish
Revenue beat estimates by 1.4%; guidance raised; fresh reaction +3.3%.
Return so far · freezes 9 Nov-6.24%
IQVIssued Tue 27 Oct
Original view: Bullish
Revenue beat estimates by 1.4%; guidance raised; fresh reaction +3.3%.
Return so far · freezes 9 Nov-6.24%-6.44% after costs
Revenue beat estimates by 1.4%; guidance raised; fresh reaction +3.3%.
1D-3.9%
3D-2.6%
7D—
Signal history & returns
Model view: Bullishlatest stage
Revenue beat estimates by 1.4%; guidance raised; fresh reaction +3.3%.
Signal issued Tue 27 Oct · 12:09 UTC · Market reaction became available
low evidence · delayed data
Revenue beat estimates by 1.4%; guidance raised; fresh reaction +3.3%.
Since signal -6.24%After costs -6.44%
Simulated entry at publication price · Tue 27 Oct · 12:05 UTC · latest mark Fri 30 Oct · 18:11 UTC · delayed
1 governed evidence reference
XYLIssued Tue 27 OctOriginal view: Bearish
EPS missed estimates by 0.7%; Revenue missed estimates by 3.5%; guidance lowered; fresh reaction -8.3%.
Return so far · freezes 9 Nov+5.96%
XYLIssued Tue 27 Oct
Original view: Bearish
EPS missed estimates by 0.7%; Revenue missed estimates by 3.5%; guidance lowered; fresh reaction -8.3%.
Return so far · freezes 9 Nov+5.96%+5.76% after costs
EPS missed estimates by 0.7%; Revenue missed estimates by 3.5%; guidance lowered; fresh reaction -8.3%.
1D+6.4%
3D+8.5%
7D—
Signal history & returns
Model view: Bearishlatest stage
EPS missed estimates by 0.7%; Revenue missed estimates by 3.5%; guidance lowered; fresh reaction -8.3%.
Signal issued Tue 27 Oct · 12:09 UTC · Market reaction became available
low evidence · delayed data
EPS missed estimates by 0.7%; Revenue missed estimates by 3.5%; guidance lowered; fresh reaction -8.3%.
Since signal +5.96%After costs +5.76%
Simulated entry at publication price · Tue 27 Oct · 12:06 UTC · latest mark Fri 30 Oct · 18:29 UTC · delayed
1 governed evidence reference
SPGIIssued Tue 27 OctOriginal view: Bullish
EPS beat estimates by 3.4%; Revenue beat estimates by 1.0%; guidance raised; one-time EPS benefit identified; fresh reaction +2.1%.
Return so far · freezes 9 Nov+0.94%
SPGIIssued Tue 27 Oct
Original view: Bullish
EPS beat estimates by 3.4%; Revenue beat estimates by 1.0%; guidance raised; one-time EPS benefit identified; fresh reaction +2.1%.
Return so far · freezes 9 Nov+0.94%+0.74% after costs
EPS beat estimates by 3.4%; Revenue beat estimates by 1.0%; guidance raised; one-time EPS benefit identified; fresh reaction +2.1%.
1D-2.4%
3D+0.1%
7D—
Signal history & returns
Model view: Bullishlatest stage
EPS beat estimates by 3.4%; Revenue beat estimates by 1.0%; guidance raised; one-time EPS benefit identified; fresh reaction +2.1%.
Signal issued Tue 27 Oct · 11:28 UTC · Market reaction became available
low evidence · delayed data
EPS beat estimates by 3.4%; Revenue beat estimates by 1.0%; guidance raised; one-time EPS benefit identified; fresh reaction +2.1%.
Since signal +0.94%After costs +0.74%
Simulated entry at publication price · Tue 27 Oct · 11:26 UTC · latest mark Fri 30 Oct · 18:29 UTC · delayed
1 governed evidence reference

What is driving the market?

Published Sat 31 Oct · 01:40 UTC

MARKETS14:19 UTC

$INTC - INTEL 5-YEAR CREDIT DEFAULT SWAP WIDENS TO RECORD HIGH OF 123.5 BPS, ON TRACK FOR BIGGEST ONE-DAY MOVE SINCE OCTOBER 2022 - MARKIT DATA

A record 123.5bp Intel CDS turns a product story into a funding-cost story for capex-heavy semis, a plausible channel behind Friday's sector-wide chip decline.

PREVICTRead impact

Why it matters: A record 123.5bp Intel CDS turns a product story into a funding-cost story for capex-heavy semis, a plausible channel behind Friday's sector-wide chip decline.
What to watch: Watch whether other AI-capex borrowers' credit spreads follow Intel's.
What would change the view: Intel's CDS retraces sharply and semiconductor shares hold Friday's close.

Markets

PREVICT · Fri 30 Oct · 14:19 UTC

EQUITIES21:17 UTC

North Korea: international sanctions can’t affect stance as nuclear weapons state - KCNA

Pyongyang's statement that sanctions cannot change its nuclear status keeps a geopolitical premium alive for gold, without a direct channel to US earnings.

Breaking headlines1 related updateRead impact

Why it matters: Pyongyang's statement that sanctions cannot change its nuclear status keeps a geopolitical premium alive for gold, without a direct channel to US earnings.
What to watch: Safe-haven demand and Korean asset risk premia at the next open.
What would change the view: Gold and Korean proxies show no response, or diplomatic engagement resumes.

Markets

GOLD SPY XLE ^KS11

Breaking headlines · Fri 30 Oct · 21:17 UTC · Source ↗

Related updates · 1

21:14 UTCNorth Korea: international sanctions ineffective against it - KCNAEQUITIES

More headlines · 2

13:00 UTCGerman CPI YoY Prelim Actual 2.8% (Forecast 3%, Previous 3.30%)MACRO
Why it matters
German CPI slowed to 2.8% year on year against a 3.0% estimate, easing euro-area inflation pressure and supporting the case for unchanged or lower ECB rates.
What to watch
Bund yields and EUR/USD sensitivity to a softer euro-area inflation path.
What would change the view
A subsequent euro-area inflation print surprising materially higher.
Markets
EWG SPY USD UST10Y
Breaking headlines · Fri 30 Oct · 13:00 UTC · Source ↗
17:47 UTCMeta outlook revised to negative by S&P on cash flow and capex concernsEQUITIES
Why it matters
A negative outlook is not a downgrade, but it flags cash-flow and capex scrutiny that can raise the cost of funding AI infrastructure build-out.
What to watch
Hyperscaler capex guidance and technology credit spreads become the read-across.
What would change the view
S&P affirms the rating with a stable outlook, or capex guidance is cut without a market penalty.
Markets
FXI ^KS11
cnbc.com · Fri 30 Oct · 17:47 UTC · Source ↗

Explore the analysis

Drivers, outlook & upcoming catalysts

Possible drivers

Record Intel CDS widening pressured chip sharesIntel's five-year credit default swap widened to a record 123.5bp on Friday, the same session SMH fell 6.98%; timing fits, but sector-wide causation is not proven.medium confidence
- $INTC - INTEL 5-YEAR CREDIT DEFAULT SWAP WIDENS TO RECORD HIGH OF 123.5 BPS, ON TRACK FOR BIGGEST ONE-DAY MOVE SINCE OCTOBER 2022 - MARKIT DATAPREVICT · Fri 30 Oct · 14:19 UTC
  news://7a26d88b06e52f1b
AI capex financing scrutiny after Meta outlook cutS&P revised Meta's outlook to negative on cash flow and capex concerns, reported after Friday's cash close, alongside deep weakness in AI-linked technology shares.medium confidence
- Meta outlook revised to negative by S&P on cash flow and capex concernscnbc.com · Fri 30 Oct · 17:47 UTC
  news://94fe7e50eeb096fa · 2 related headlines

Sentiment by horizonclick a cell for the driver

Watch items

MON 2
ISM Manufacturing PMI (Oct)
10:00 ET · First US data after the chip selloff
TUE 3
AMD earnings
Direct read-across for semiconductor funding stress
FRI 6
Non Farm Payrolls (Oct)
08:30 ET · Sets the rates backdrop for credit-sensitive tech

Themes

Intel 5-year credit default swap widens to record high-0.60
INTC SMH XLK QQQ
Meta outlook revised to negative by S&P on cash flow and capex concerns-0.40
META QQQ XLK
German CPI slows to 2.8% in October+0.20
EWG SPY UST10Y
China NBS manufacturing PMI falls to 49.3-0.30
FXI XLB SPY

Instrument context

Instrument	View	Interpretation
SPY	↑ Slight bullish biasAnalyst tension: mild slight bullish	The official forecast puts a 0.55 probability on a gain from the first post-issue quote to Monday's cash close, with expected return near +0.09%. Friday's damage was concentrated in semis while defensives rose, and the S&P 500 perpetual reference was modestly firmer in the observed window, which favours partial relief…
QQQ	↓ Moderately bearishAnalyst tension: mild slight bearish	The model's 0.29 probability of a gain and roughly −0.70% expected entry-to-close return match persistent pressure on the Nasdaq-100's semiconductor and AI-capex complex, where both the record Intel CDS and Meta's negative outlook sit.
BRENT	→ NeutralANALYST VIEW	Energy was Friday's strongest US sector and the Brent perpetual reference was marginally firmer in the observed window, but no supply catalyst is present in the evidence packet, so this is a momentum read with limited conviction.
GOLD	↑ Slight bullishANALYST VIEW	Gold's perpetual reference edged higher in the same window while technology credit stress and Pyongyang's statement supported haven demand; softer German inflation removes only a modest real-rate headwind.
INTC	↓ BearishANALYST VIEW	A record 123.5bp five-year CDS and the largest one-day widening since 2022 make Intel's funding and cash generation the dominant issue for equity holders; there is no evidence yet that the spread move has reversed.

SPY↑ Slight bullish bias
Analyst tension: mild slight bullish
The official forecast puts a 0.55 probability on a gain from the first post-issue quote to Monday's cash close, with expected return near +0.09%. Friday's damage was concentrated in semis while defensives rose, and the S&P 500 perpetual reference was modestly firmer in the observed window, which favours partial relief…
QQQ↓ Moderately bearish
Analyst tension: mild slight bearish
The model's 0.29 probability of a gain and roughly −0.70% expected entry-to-close return match persistent pressure on the Nasdaq-100's semiconductor and AI-capex complex, where both the record Intel CDS and Meta's negative outlook sit.
BRENT→ NeutralANALYST VIEW
Energy was Friday's strongest US sector and the Brent perpetual reference was marginally firmer in the observed window, but no supply catalyst is present in the evidence packet, so this is a momentum read with limited conviction.
GOLD↑ Slight bullishANALYST VIEW
Gold's perpetual reference edged higher in the same window while technology credit stress and Pyongyang's statement supported haven demand; softer German inflation removes only a modest real-rate headwind.
INTC↓ BearishANALYST VIEW
A record 123.5bp five-year CDS and the largest one-day widening since 2022 make Intel's funding and cash generation the dominant issue for equity holders; there is no evidence yet that the spread move has reversed.

Economic Calendar

12/189

Date	Time		Event	Imp.	Actual	Est.	Prev.	Surp.
FRI 30	09:00 UTC		Baden Wuerttemberg CPI MoM (Oct)		0	—	0.6	—
FRI 30	09:00 UTC		Baden Wuerttemberg CPI YoY (Oct)		2.6	—	2.9	—
FRI 30	09:00 UTC		Bavaria CPI MoM (Oct)		0	—	0.6	—
FRI 30	09:00 UTC		Bavaria CPI YoY (Oct)		2.8	—	3.2	—
FRI 30	09:00 UTC		Brandenburg CPI MoM (Oct)		-0.3	—	0.3	—
FRI 30	09:00 UTC		Brandenburg CPI YoY (Oct)		2.9	—	3.6	—
FRI 30	08:55 UTC		Employment Change (Oct)		4	5	12	-20.0%
FRI 30	10:00 UTC		GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Q3)		0.4	0.2	0.6	+100.0%
FRI 30	09:00 UTC		GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Q3)		0	0.1	0.2	-100.0%
FRI 30	06:30 UTC		GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Q3)		-0.1	0.1	0	-200.0%
FRI 30	10:00 UTC		GDP Growth Rate YoY (Q3)		1.3	1.1	1.2	+18.2%
FRI 30	09:00 UTC		GDP Growth Rate YoY (Q3)		0.8	0.9	1	-11.1%

Earnings Calendar

12/1999

Date	Symbol	Name	Timing	Imp.	EPS est.	Rev. est.	Surp.
Fri 30 Oct	ABBV	ABBV	—		$3.73	$17.3B	—
Fri 30 Oct	ACGBF	ACGBF	—		$0.03	$30.3B	—
Fri 30 Oct	ACGBY	ACGBY	—		—	$27.4B	—
Fri 30 Oct	AZN	AZN	—		$2.60	$16.0B	—
Fri 30 Oct	BACHF	BACHF	—		$0.03	$25.3B	—
Fri 30 Oct	BACHY	BACHY	—		$0.71	$25.5B	—
Fri 30 Oct	BCMXY	BCMXY	—		$0.93	$10.6B	—
Fri 30 Oct	BKFCF	BKFCF	—		$0.04	$10.6B	—
Fri 30 Oct	BP	BP	—		$2.66	$63.1B	—
Fri 30 Oct	BPAQF	BPAQF	—		$0.46	$63.1B	—
Fri 30 Oct	CAIXY	CAIXY	—		$0.09	$4.8B	—
Fri 30 Oct	CICHF	CICHF	—		$0.06	$29.0B	—

Rates & FX

US 10Y

4.94%

1D−4 bp

2s10s

+38 bp

1D+1 bp

Dollar index

101.96

1D+0.08%

USD/JPY

157.57

1D−0.08%

Stocks have moved largely independently of the 10-year yield.

Yields: Treasury close Oct 30

All rates & FX

US Treasuries

US Treasuries	Recent sessions	Yield	1D	20D
US 2Y		4.56%	−5 bp	−22 bp
US 10Y		4.94%	−4 bp	−30 bp
2s10s		+38 bp	+1 bp	−8 bp
10Y real		2.60%	−3 bp	−28 bp

Dollar

Dollar	Recent sessions	Level	1D	20D
Dollar index		101.96	+0.08%	+0.05%
EUR/USD		1.1158	−0.20%	−0.84%
USD/JPY		157.57	−0.08%	−0.16%
USD/CNH		6.6499	−0.10%	−0.82%
USD/CHF		0.8250	+0.08%	−0.42%
AUD/JPY		110.77	−0.06%	+0.93%

Correlation regime

S&P 500 vs 10Y yield · 60D

−0.13

Change over 20D +0.40

Stocks have moved largely independently of the 10-year yield.

S&P 500 vs dollar index · 60D

−0.22

Change over 20D +0.09

Stocks have moved largely independently of the dollar.

Polymarket · Macro Expectations

Sat 31 Oct · 01:42 UTC

Crowd read

See where probability is most concentrated, where the crowd remains split, and what repriced most over the past day.

Rates · 13

Strongest view

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Yes · $9.3M traded

Closest call

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Yes · $9.3M traded

Largest shift

-0.8 pp in 24hnow 1%

Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?

Yes · $3.7M traded

All market contracts13 tracked

Contract	Tracked outcome	24h	Volume
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? ↗	Yes 97%	-0.6 pp	$9.3M
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? ↗	Yes 1%	-0.8 pp	$3.7M
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? ↗	Yes 0%	No 24h change	$3.5M
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? ↗	Yes 0%	No 24h change	$3.0M
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? ↗	Yes 0%	No 24h change	$2.8M
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? ↗	Yes 0%	No 24h change	$3.0M
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? ↗	Yes 0%	No 24h change	$4.2M
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? ↗	Yes 0%	No 24h change	$3.5M
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? ↗	Yes 0%	No 24h change	$3.3M
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? ↗	Yes 0%	No 24h change	$4.3M
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? ↗	Yes 0%	No 24h change	$5.0M
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? ↗	Yes 0%	No 24h change	$5.3M
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? ↗	Yes 0%	+0.1 pp	$4.2M

What is driving the market?

Published Sat 31 Oct · 01:40 UTC

MARKETS14:19 UTC

$INTC - INTEL 5-YEAR CREDIT DEFAULT SWAP WIDENS TO RECORD HIGH OF 123.5 BPS, ON TRACK FOR BIGGEST ONE-DAY MOVE SINCE OCTOBER 2022 - MARKIT DATA

A record 123.5bp Intel CDS turns a product story into a funding-cost story for capex-heavy semis, a plausible channel behind Friday's sector-wide chip decline.

PREVICTRead impact

Why it matters: A record 123.5bp Intel CDS turns a product story into a funding-cost story for capex-heavy semis, a plausible channel behind Friday's sector-wide chip decline.
What to watch: Watch whether other AI-capex borrowers' credit spreads follow Intel's.
What would change the view: Intel's CDS retraces sharply and semiconductor shares hold Friday's close.

Markets

PREVICT · Fri 30 Oct · 14:19 UTC

EQUITIES21:17 UTC

North Korea: international sanctions can’t affect stance as nuclear weapons state - KCNA

Pyongyang's statement that sanctions cannot change its nuclear status keeps a geopolitical premium alive for gold, without a direct channel to US earnings.

Breaking headlines1 related updateRead impact

Why it matters: Pyongyang's statement that sanctions cannot change its nuclear status keeps a geopolitical premium alive for gold, without a direct channel to US earnings.
What to watch: Safe-haven demand and Korean asset risk premia at the next open.
What would change the view: Gold and Korean proxies show no response, or diplomatic engagement resumes.

Markets

GOLD SPY XLE ^KS11

Breaking headlines · Fri 30 Oct · 21:17 UTC · Source ↗

Related updates · 1

21:14 UTCNorth Korea: international sanctions ineffective against it - KCNAEQUITIES

More headlines · 2

13:00 UTCGerman CPI YoY Prelim Actual 2.8% (Forecast 3%, Previous 3.30%)MACRO
Why it matters
German CPI slowed to 2.8% year on year against a 3.0% estimate, easing euro-area inflation pressure and supporting the case for unchanged or lower ECB rates.
What to watch
Bund yields and EUR/USD sensitivity to a softer euro-area inflation path.
What would change the view
A subsequent euro-area inflation print surprising materially higher.
Markets
EWG SPY USD UST10Y
Breaking headlines · Fri 30 Oct · 13:00 UTC · Source ↗
17:47 UTCMeta outlook revised to negative by S&P on cash flow and capex concernsEQUITIES
Why it matters
A negative outlook is not a downgrade, but it flags cash-flow and capex scrutiny that can raise the cost of funding AI infrastructure build-out.
What to watch
Hyperscaler capex guidance and technology credit spreads become the read-across.
What would change the view
S&P affirms the rating with a stable outlook, or capex guidance is cut without a market penalty.
Markets
FXI ^KS11
cnbc.com · Fri 30 Oct · 17:47 UTC · Source ↗

Explore the analysis

Drivers, outlook & upcoming catalysts

Possible drivers

Record Intel CDS widening pressured chip sharesIntel's five-year credit default swap widened to a record 123.5bp on Friday, the same session SMH fell 6.98%; timing fits, but sector-wide causation is not proven.medium confidence
- $INTC - INTEL 5-YEAR CREDIT DEFAULT SWAP WIDENS TO RECORD HIGH OF 123.5 BPS, ON TRACK FOR BIGGEST ONE-DAY MOVE SINCE OCTOBER 2022 - MARKIT DATAPREVICT · Fri 30 Oct · 14:19 UTC
  news://7a26d88b06e52f1b
AI capex financing scrutiny after Meta outlook cutS&P revised Meta's outlook to negative on cash flow and capex concerns, reported after Friday's cash close, alongside deep weakness in AI-linked technology shares.medium confidence
- Meta outlook revised to negative by S&P on cash flow and capex concernscnbc.com · Fri 30 Oct · 17:47 UTC
  news://94fe7e50eeb096fa · 2 related headlines

Sentiment by horizonclick a cell for the driver

Watch items

MON 2
ISM Manufacturing PMI (Oct)
10:00 ET · First US data after the chip selloff
TUE 3
AMD earnings
Direct read-across for semiconductor funding stress
FRI 6
Non Farm Payrolls (Oct)
08:30 ET · Sets the rates backdrop for credit-sensitive tech

Themes

Instrument context

Instrument	View	Interpretation
SPY	↑ Slight bullish biasAnalyst tension: mild slight bullish	The official forecast puts a 0.55 probability on a gain from the first post-issue quote to Monday's cash close, with expected return near +0.09%. Friday's damage was concentrated in semis while defensives rose, and the S&P 500 perpetual reference was modestly firmer in the observed window, which favours partial relief…
QQQ	↓ Moderately bearishAnalyst tension: mild slight bearish	The model's 0.29 probability of a gain and roughly −0.70% expected entry-to-close return match persistent pressure on the Nasdaq-100's semiconductor and AI-capex complex, where both the record Intel CDS and Meta's negative outlook sit.
BRENT	→ NeutralANALYST VIEW	Energy was Friday's strongest US sector and the Brent perpetual reference was marginally firmer in the observed window, but no supply catalyst is present in the evidence packet, so this is a momentum read with limited conviction.
GOLD	↑ Slight bullishANALYST VIEW	Gold's perpetual reference edged higher in the same window while technology credit stress and Pyongyang's statement supported haven demand; softer German inflation removes only a modest real-rate headwind.
INTC	↓ BearishANALYST VIEW	A record 123.5bp five-year CDS and the largest one-day widening since 2022 make Intel's funding and cash generation the dominant issue for equity holders; there is no evidence yet that the spread move has reversed.

SPY↑ Slight bullish bias
Analyst tension: mild slight bullish
The official forecast puts a 0.55 probability on a gain from the first post-issue quote to Monday's cash close, with expected return near +0.09%. Friday's damage was concentrated in semis while defensives rose, and the S&P 500 perpetual reference was modestly firmer in the observed window, which favours partial relief…
QQQ↓ Moderately bearish
Analyst tension: mild slight bearish
The model's 0.29 probability of a gain and roughly −0.70% expected entry-to-close return match persistent pressure on the Nasdaq-100's semiconductor and AI-capex complex, where both the record Intel CDS and Meta's negative outlook sit.
BRENT→ NeutralANALYST VIEW
Energy was Friday's strongest US sector and the Brent perpetual reference was marginally firmer in the observed window, but no supply catalyst is present in the evidence packet, so this is a momentum read with limited conviction.
GOLD↑ Slight bullishANALYST VIEW
Gold's perpetual reference edged higher in the same window while technology credit stress and Pyongyang's statement supported haven demand; softer German inflation removes only a modest real-rate headwind.
INTC↓ BearishANALYST VIEW
A record 123.5bp five-year CDS and the largest one-day widening since 2022 make Intel's funding and cash generation the dominant issue for equity holders; there is no evidence yet that the spread move has reversed.