PREVICT Research
Fact-first news and analysis of the developments shaping global markets.
Market close
Geopolitical supply risk stays prominent into the September 3 session, while Washington details a $70 billion tariff-refund budget hit and fresh chip-tariff intent.
News & analysis
Trade tensions may keep Governor Tiff Macklem cautious, but markets already price 27bp of tightening by January.
News analysis
Bessent’s comment signals a structural energy-infrastructure response, while official counts show the strait still handles enormous crude volumes.
News & analysis
U.S. energy secretary says 17 million barrels passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, keeping the route open amid conflict.
Market close
Oil logistics and European security risk dominate after-hours news, while the closing auction skew is negative for S&P 500 and Dow but positive for Nasdaq 100 and Mag 7.
Market close
Administration declines to revive the Versailles memorandum even as Tehran claims 80 million barrels were exported during the ceasefire, keeping the oil supply outlook split between diplomacy and enforcement.
News analysis
The decision shelves the Versailles framework that tied sanctions relief and frozen cash to reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and leaves a condition cited by Fed's Collins in her disinflation outlook unresolved.
News analysis
Long-end bond-purchase signals and yen support are lowering U.S. real yields and burnishing bullion's appeal as a debasement hedge.
Morning brief
Long-end yields ease, oil's supply-risk premium cools, and RBA rate-hike bets firm ahead of PCE, a 7-year auction and Jackson Hole.
News & analysis
Longer-dated Treasury yields are 10-15 basis points lower a week after Scott Bessent's market intervention, reinforcing bullion's currency-debasement appeal before PCE and the $44bn 7-year sale.
Morning brief
Fed's Collins ties disinflation to limited tariffs and progress on the Strait of Hormuz, while Treasury sanctions and Nvidia's Rubin debut keep separate risks in view.
News & analysis
Treasury Secretary Bessent signals a wave of follow-on designations; focus shifts to whether Chinese refiners are targeted.
News analysis
The unresolved question is whether Washington will open another layer of energy supply risk and US-China friction before September meetings.
Market close
The Dow advances while semiconductor names weaken before Nvidia results, and Treasury Secretary Bessent signals a broader wave of Iran-related sanctions with Chinese refiners still the unresolved escalation risk.
News analysis
Historical review of 2018 and 2022 shows S&P 500 swings into year-end, with defensive sectors outpacing during drawdowns and cyclicals leading rebounds.
Market close
Late Aug. 19 reports detail a proposed 50% steel and aluminum tariff reduction with quota arrangements, while oil extends gains and separate technology and mining items round out the session.
News & analysis
President Trump says no interest in extending truce, US signals long game; Saudi resumption of Hormuz loadings offers limited relief.
News analysis
Turkish-led efforts to broker a Strait of Hormuz reopening challenge the market's assumption of a prolonged, price-boosting disruption.
Market close
As a fragile ceasefire expires, the unresolved Persian Gulf stalemate pushes oil volatility higher, compounding pressure on US gasoline prices and complicating the Federal Reserve's inflation calculus.
News & analysis
The agency sees severe transit disruptions through August, while Indian refiners scramble for alternative supply, extending the oil price premium.