Today
Today
Forecast withheld
stale data
Microsoft Corporation
Technology · Software - Infrastructure · NASDAQ
No intelligence items published yet.
252 candles · 1Y · retrieved
Value
16% below fair value
confidence low
Estimate momentum
→ stable
Next catalyst
MSFT earnings · 33d
earnings
Volatility
normal
regime
1M forecast
withheld
Value tells you the size of the gap; the other cells tell you what could close it — and when. A cheap stock without a catalyst can stay cheap.
Estimated fair value
601.62
Range
422.58–926.44
Price vs value
16% below
Model support
Price trades 16% below the fair-value estimate — MSFT screens as moderately undervalued. The 2 models broadly agree (dispersion 5.2%). A valuation gap is not a timing signal and currently has zero ranking weight.
Forward earnings lens
26.3x FY2027 P/E
EPS 19.73+9.9%30 analysts
Shown as context, not blended into fair value, while genuine point-in-time forward-multiple history accumulates.
Where estimates sit vs price 518.17
Peer companies' EV/EBITDA: not shown — unavailable.
Total payout (dividends + net buybacks): not shown — dividends are the relevant payout model.
Not meaningful for this company type: excess returns model (financials), path-to-profitability (scenario), dividend discount model, p/ocf vs peer reits (ffo proxy).
Cheap or expensive — depending on the yardstick
Entry threshold
below 481.30(fair value 601.62 − 20%)
price is 8% above your threshold
A valuation threshold, not a timing signal — a cheap stock can keep falling. Alerts wire in when the notification substrate lands.
→ Estimates stable (revenue +0.3% · EPS +0.5% · targets +1.6% this month)
Company profile at a glance
Bars are scaled to documented anchors (e.g. 35% operating margin = full bar), not ranked against other companies. Each row stands on its own — there is no hidden total score.
Financials at a glance· latest reported year · 17y of statements
Revenue
$331.8B
+15% per year over the period
Operating margin
46.8%
5y average 44.2%
Free cash flow
$67.0B
20.2% of revenue
Net debt / EBITDA
0.1×
ROE
30.2%
net income ÷ equity
ROIC
26.6%
after-tax operating profit ÷ capital
Dividends paid
$26.4B
latest year
Buybacks
$22.3B
share repurchases, latest year
Where the revenue dollar went · FY2026
What the current price is assuming
These are what the market must believe, not what Previct forecasts. If the priced-in assumptions look impossible, the price is fragile; if they look easy, the bar is low.
What the DCF is made of — present value by year (base case)
Terminal value is 79% of the total. Solid years are consensus-anchored; lighter years fade to the stable rate.
Which growth × margin combinations justify today's price
| margin ↓ / growth → | -5% | 0% | 5% | 10% | 15% | 20% | 25% | 30% | 35% | 40% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60% | ||||||||||
| 55% | ||||||||||
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| 45% | ||||||||||
| 40% | ||||||||||
| 35% | ||||||||||
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| 15% | ||||||||||
| 10% | ||||||||||
| 5% | ||||||||||
| 0% |
Sage cells are the assumption pairs that make the model value equal today's price (±2%) — 1 of 100 combinations work. If they all sit at heroic growth or margins, the price is demanding.
Price vs fair value through time
— price · — fair value (band = bear–bull). Vintages accumulating since 2026-08-13 (recorded at compute time; no historical backfill).
Fair value if assumptions move — discount rate × terminal growth
| discount rate ↓ | g 0% | g 1% | g 2% | g 3% | g 4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.1% | 595.07 | 645.09 | 711.42 | 803.61 | 940.42 |
| 8.6% | 544.03 | 585.29 | 639 | 711.77 | 815.97 |
| 9.1% | 499.21 | 533.51 | 577.42 | 635.65 | 716.57 |
| 9.6% | 459.62 | 488.31 | 524.52 | 571.65 | 635.51 |
| 10.1% | 424.45 | 448.6 | 478.68 | 517.2 | 568.29 |
| 10.6% | 393.06 | 413.49 | 438.65 | 470.4 | 511.73 |
| 11.1% | 364.93 | 382.29 | 403.45 | 429.82 | 463.59 |
Cells compare each implied fair value with the current price 518.17: green above it, burgundy below. Outlined cell = base case.