Our best guess at what one share is worth, based on the company’s finances.

Previct combines several valuation methods that look at the cash the business is expected to make and at how its shares have been priced before. The result is an estimate with a range. It is not a price target and not a prediction of where the price will go.

How today’s price compares with our estimate.

“Above” means buyers are paying more than our estimate, “below” means less. It says nothing about when, or whether, the price will move toward the estimate.

Not necessarily, and not on any schedule.

A gap only shows that the market and our estimate disagree. Prices can stay above or below an estimate for years, and the estimate itself can be wrong.

The price an analyst thinks a stock could trade at, usually in about 12 months.

A target is an opinion, not our forecast. Targets often miss and differ from analyst to analyst. They are shown for comparison and are not part of our estimate.

The probability our forecast gives to the price being higher after 20 trading days.

It compares the price after 20 trading days with the price when the forecast was issued. 50% means the model leans neither way. At 70%, the price would still end lower about 3 times in 10.

Three “what if” pictures of the company’s future cash.

One assumes demand stays strong, one a normal ups-and-downs cycle and one a downturn. Each turns a story about the business into a value per share, using a cash-flow model that is separate from our estimate. They are not predictions, they are never averaged, and none of them is a price target.