AstraZeneca PLC (AZN) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript
AstraZeneca PLC (AZN) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript
Today
Today
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AstraZeneca PLC
AstraZeneca PLC (AZN) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript
Value
Model value 70% below price
Estimate momentum
tracking
trends after ~30 days
Next catalyst
none scheduled
Volatility
—
building depth
1M forecast
withheld
Value tells you the size of the gap; the other cells tell you what could close it — and when. A cheap stock without a catalyst can stay cheap.
Estimated fair value
55.56
Range
26.10–107.18
Model value vs price
70% below price
Model value is 70% below price. Compare the individual methods below; a valuation gap is not a timing signal.
Forward earnings lens
18.2x FY2026 P/E
EPS 10.24+56.6%7 analystsreported FY2025
Consensus earnings estimates are shown separately from the valuation models.
Where estimates sit vs price 186.65
Cheap or expensive — depending on the yardstick
Entry threshold
below 44.44(fair value 55.56 − 20%)
price is 320% above your threshold
A valuation threshold, not a timing signal — a cheap stock can keep falling. Alerts wire in when the notification substrate lands.
Estimate revisions: tracking since 2026-10-31 — trends appear after ~30 days of snapshots.
Company profile at a glance
Bars are scaled to documented anchors (e.g. 35% operating margin = full bar), not ranked against other companies. Each row stands on its own — there is no hidden total score.
Financials at a glance· latest reported year · 8y of statements
Revenue
$58.7B
+15% per year over the period
Operating margin
23.4%
5y average 14.2%
Free cash flow
$8.7B
14.8% of revenue
Net debt / EBITDA
1.2×
ROE
21.1%
net income ÷ equity
ROIC
14.9%
after-tax operating profit ÷ capital
Dividends paid
$5.0B
latest year
Where the revenue dollar went · FY2025
What the current price is assuming
Each solve varies one assumption while holding the other cash-flow assumptions fixed.
What the DCF is made of — present value by year (base case)
Terminal value is 66% of the total. Solid years are consensus-anchored; lighter years fade to the stable rate.
Which growth × margin combinations justify today's price
| margin ↓ / growth → | -5% | 0% | 5% | 10% | 15% | 20% | 25% | 30% | 35% | 40% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60% | ||||||||||
| 55% | ||||||||||
| 50% | ||||||||||
| 45% | ||||||||||
| 40% | ||||||||||
| 35% | ||||||||||
| 30% | ||||||||||
| 25% | ||||||||||
| 20% | ||||||||||
| 15% | ||||||||||
| 10% | ||||||||||
| 5% | ||||||||||
| 0% |
Sage cells are the assumption pairs that make the model value equal today's price (±2%) — 1 of 100 combinations work. If they all sit at heroic growth or margins, the price is demanding.
Price vs fair value through time
— price · — fair value (band = bear–bull). Vintages accumulating since 2026-10-30 (recorded at compute time; no historical backfill).
Fair value if assumptions move — discount rate × terminal growth
| discount rate ↓ | g 0% | g 1% | g 2% | g 3% | g 4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.6% | 72.56 | 76.77 | 82.82 | 92.24 | 108.9 |
| 7.1% | 64.76 | 67.75 | 71.91 | 78.1 | 88.29 |
| 7.6% | 58.05 | 60.14 | 62.98 | 67.06 | 73.41 |
| 8.1% | 52.22 | 53.65 | 55.56 | 58.21 | 62.16 |
| 8.6% | 47.11 | 48.05 | 49.28 | 50.95 | 53.35 |
| 9.1% | 42.6 | 43.18 | 43.92 | 44.91 | 46.28 |
| 9.6% | 38.6 | 38.91 | 39.29 | 39.79 | 40.47 |
Cells compare each implied fair value with the current price 186.65: green above it, burgundy below. Outlined cell = base case.
252 candles · 1Y · retrieved