Market brief
Tanker shortage, not crude scarcity, now drives oil costs as Hormuz flows surge
Middle East loadings near 12 million barrels a day leave refiners bidding for a tanker fleet already in full use, and European fuel-making margins have turned negative.
Key points
- Middle East crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz rose to about 12 million barrels a day in September from roughly 7.5 million in July and August, so the binding constraint on oil has shifted from crude supply to shipping capacity.
- Moving that crude outside Iran now takes an estimated 35 additional VLCCs, 13 Suezmaxes and 10 Aframaxes versus the 2025 average, lifting freight costs and putting upward pressure on delivered crude prices.
- European refiners face negative margins and rising run-cut risk, while Atlantic Basin producers are already shifting to smaller ships, spreading the tanker shortage across the global market.
Middle Eastern oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz climbed to about 12 million barrels a day in September, up from roughly 7.5 million barrels a day in July and August, tightening the world's tanker supply and raising the cost of moving crude. Delivered crude prices are back at spring highs, European refinery margins have turned negative and the risk of refinery run cuts is rising. The squeeze now stems from transportation constraints, not a shortage of crude itself.
The strain runs through how efficiently each ship is used. Most of the global VLCC fleet — very large crude carriers, the largest class of tanker used to haul crude over long distances — is already in active use. Longer voyages, ship-to-ship transfers and rerouting around high-risk areas all consume more vessel time per cargo, so more capacity is needed to move the same volume of oil. United States sanctions leave around 124 Iranian VLCCs effectively unavailable to much of the international market, shrinking the pool of large tankers that can be booked at all.
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