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US and Iran explore trading Hormuz reopening for an end to the US blockade

Negotiators in New York are testing a phased formula in which each side's central demand is met by the other's concession, with the blocked strait the pivot of talks to end a conflict nearing seven months.

By PREVICT Research·Thu 24 Sep 2026 · 20:16 UTC
Illustrative photograph: cargo ship on sea under cloudy sky during daytime
Photo by Anastasios Antoniadis on Unsplash

US and Iranian negotiators in New York are exploring a phased path out of a conflict approaching its seventh month in which Tehran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and Washington would lift its economic blockade of Iran, according to sources close to the talks.

The two concessions are linked by design: Iran is seeking relief from a US blockade that the people close to the talks describe as choking its economy, while Washington is pressing for free passage on a global oil supply route that Tehran has blocked. The strait has moved from a geographic detail to the pivot of the negotiation, because neither side obtains its priority unless the other moves.

Read as an economic mechanism rather than a settled term, the formula would release two pressures at once: a maritime oil corridor currently closed by Tehran, and the trade and financial squeeze on Iran. That reading is an inference from the positions each side is said to be advancing, not evidence that an agreement has been reached or that a sequence is fixed. The conditional consequence is that only implementation, not continued talks, would reopen the shipping route and loosen the blockade; if the phased idea stalls, both levers remain in place and the conflict carries on with the same bargaining chip at its centre.

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