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Gulf Oil Exports Rebound to 23.3 mb/d, Matching 2025 Average, Goldman Sachs Estimates
The recovery, driven by higher Strait of Hormuz flows and Saudi redirection, leaves the market roughly balanced but with Brent near $120/bbl as a risk premium persists.
Key points
- Persian Gulf oil exports recovered to an estimated 23.3 million barrels a day over the past week, roughly matching their 2025 average, after doubling in September.
- Saudi Arabia and the UAE drove the increase, while refined-product exports remain about half of 2025 levels and Iran recorded no seaborne crude or major product exports in September.
- Goldman Sachs forecasts Brent to moderate toward $85/bbl by year-end and $80/bbl in 2027, even as dated Brent trades near $120/bbl on a substantial risk premium.
Goldman Sachs estimated that Persian Gulf oil exports recovered to 23.3 million barrels a day over the past week, roughly in line with their 2025 average, after doubling in September.
The rebound came despite the Saudi East-West pipeline attack that disrupted flows to Yanbu for nearly two weeks and the ongoing Houthi blockade of Saudi exports through Bab-al-Mandab. Saudi exports more than doubled in September, reaching 11.6 million barrels a day over the past week and moving above their 2025 average, helped by redirecting Red Sea exports toward eastern ports and increased estimated dark transits. UAE exports also exceeded their 2025 average, with potential for further increases. In contrast, satellite data indicate no seaborne exports of crude or major refined products from Iran during September.
Crude accounted for almost 90% of the September increase, reaching 19 million barrels a day, or 108% of the 2025 average. Refined-product exports also increased, but diesel, gasoline and jet-fuel exports remain around half their 2025 average because of elevated refinery outages and greater risks for refined-product tankers crossing Hormuz.
The global oil market appears roughly balanced, with recovering Gulf exports and broadly stable visible inventories, while OECD commercial stocks remain around late-February 2026 levels. Dated Brent is near $120/bbl, reflecting a substantial risk premium. Goldman Sachs' base case is for Brent to moderate toward $85/bbl by year-end and $80/bbl in 2027. That premium likely incorporates the risk that renewed escalation could damage additional energy infrastructure and threaten longer-term production, alongside historically low global inventories outside OECD commercial stocks and the resulting incentive to rebuild inventories quickly amid heightened supply risks.
