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Credit Agricole Sees Brent Near $95 as Gulf Oil Losses Prove Hard to Offset
The bank expects US growth above 2% and inflation cooling to 2.3% by 2027, but warns that low European gas inventories and absent Qatari LNG keep the energy market tight.
Key points
- Credit Agricole expects Brent to stay around $95 a barrel through 2027, with Persian Gulf supply losses harder to offset than the 2022 Russian disruption.
- The bank forecasts US GDP growth of 2.1% in 2026 and 2.0% in 2027, with inflation averaging 3.4% then slowing to 2.3%.
- China is seen growing around 4.5% in both years, but weak domestic demand and inflation near 1% point to persistent deflationary pressures.
Credit Agricole forecasts Brent crude will hold near $95 a barrel through late 2026 and 2027, saying oil supply losses from the Persian Gulf have proved harder to offset than the Russian disruption in 2022.
The bank's outlook says the loss of Persian Gulf oil supply has been more difficult to replace than the 2022 Russian disruption, keeping its Brent forecast elevated at around $95 a barrel through late 2026 and 2027. Europe also faces renewed natural gas risks: inventories are unusually low, Qatari LNG remains absent, and Asian demand is expected to keep the market tight into 2027.
Despite high energy costs, persistent inflation and tighter monetary conditions, the bank sees growth as relatively resilient. It forecasts US GDP growth of 2.1% in 2026 and 2.0% in 2027, supported by strong AI investment, a still-solid labour market, supportive fiscal policy and household wealth. US inflation is expected to average 3.4% in 2026 before slowing to 2.3% in 2027.
Emerging economies are also holding up well, helped by domestic demand and exports tied to metals, hydrocarbons and AI, according to the outlook. China is expected to grow around 4.5% in both 2026 and 2027, although weak domestic demand and inflation of only around 1% suggest deflationary pressures remain. That means prices in China are rising very slowly or even falling, which can weigh on demand and make debt harder to repay.
Taken together, the outlook suggests high energy prices will keep inflation above central bank targets for longer, but the global economy can still grow because AI investment and resilient consumers offset the drag. The forecast would be undermined if Gulf oil supply losses are replaced faster than expected or if Qatari LNG returns to Europe, which would lower energy costs. Conversely, a sharper slowdown in AI spending or a weakening US labour market would threaten the growth projections.
