Market brief
SAP, IBM, Texas Instruments, Meta and Tesla report later today, with technology's 81% beat rate below the broader market's and the AI trade still the main driver of equities.
Investors have pulled back from risk-seeking at the start of the earnings season even though nearly 98% of the 165 S&P 500 companies that have reported so far beat earnings expectations. Technology is the main focus: its beat rate is a still-healthy 81% with about 60% of the sector reported, and SAP, IBM, Texas Instruments, Meta and Tesla report later today.
The broad beat rate is close to a clean sweep. A beat ratio measures the share of reporting companies whose results exceeded analysts' consensus estimates, and 98% is a strong reading across the 165 companies that have reported—a broad sample of the S&P 500 rather than a handful of early reporters. That would normally support risk appetite, but investors are especially focused on technology companies because the AI boom is the biggest driver of equity markets—and that is where the beat rate is lower.
Within technology, the beat rate drops to 81% and about 60% of the sector has reported, so the remaining results carry more weight. The five companies reporting later today are directly exposed to that test. A miss or a cautious outlook from any of them would land in a market that is already showing less appetite for risk, while a strong set of results would challenge the cautious tone. Because the AI boom is the market's main engine, the sector's results can move risk appetite more than a beat from a smaller S&P 500 company.
News & analysis
The risk pullback is not confined to earnings. A risk index rose over the past week, driven mainly by higher equity and foreign-exchange volatility and wider emerging-market sovereign and private-credit spreads—the extra yield investors demand to hold riskier debt over safer government bonds. The increase was capped by cyclical stocks outperforming defensive ones, a sign that investors are not abandoning equities wholesale. Cyclical companies, whose profits tend to rise and fall with the economy, beat defensive businesses that typically hold up better in a slowdown. Among the Group of 10 major currencies, only the Swiss franc, Canadian dollar and Swedish krona had significant positive correlations with the risk index—meaning they tended to move in the same direction—while sterling, the U.S. dollar and the Norwegian krone had significant negative correlations.