Goldman Sachs Lifts Brent December 2026 Forecast to $90 on Supply Risk

The revision rests on the pace at which the geopolitical risk premium is fading rather than on any new supply loss. Goldman estimates that premium at just over $20 a barrel in the timespreads — the price gaps between contracts for different delivery months — and argues that ongoing downside risks to supply will slow its moderation. That is why the December 2026 Brent number moved up while the 2027 average held at $80: the bank still expects Gulf supply adaptation to push prices lower over time, but more slowly than it previously assumed.

The bank's supply accounting has actually improved. It estimates that Persian Gulf oil exports, including estimated dark exports — barrels moved outside official channels — have recently recovered to their 2025 average, and that the global market was roughly balanced in September. The baseline supply outlook was revised slightly higher after that stronger-than-expected recovery. Even so, prices remain elevated, which Goldman attributes to low global inventories, concerns about potential disruptions and the sensitivity of interest rates to oil prices, all of which encourage physical restocking and financial hedging.

Goldman also flags an unusual gap between the two benchmarks. It forecasts WTI averaging $81 in December 2026 and $73 in 2027, unusually cheap versus Brent because of high US-Europe shipping costs. Incorporating inventories held outside OECD commercial storage raises the bank's estimated fair value for spot Brent, reinforcing the incentive to rebuild stocks. The distribution of risks is asymmetric: further infrastructure damage, intensified shipping attacks or a persistent geopolitical premium could drive prices substantially higher, with Brent averaging around $125 in 2027 in a severe disruption scenario where Gulf production stays well below February 2026 levels. A stronger-than-expected recovery in regional output, by contrast, could push prices into the $60s.