Risk Appetite
-26.2→
Confidence
90%
Macro
The regime behind the tape
Data service · Checking
Growth, inflation, rates and liquidity—connected to the releases and market-implied expectations that can change them next.
Macro Regime
Growth
+0.9
OKNo live regime read
Inflation
+17.1
OKNo live regime read
Rates
-24.9
DEGRADEDNo live regime read
Liquidity
—
UNKNOWNNo Live Source
Economic Calendar
12/106
| Date | Time | Event | Imp. | Actual | Est. | Prev. | Surp. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales Ex Fuel MoM (Aug) | 0.6 | -0.2 | -0.9 | +400.0% | ||||
| Retail Sales Ex Fuel YoY (Aug) | 2.7 | 1.9 | 1.8 | +42.1% | ||||
| Retail Sales MoM (Aug) | 0.5 | -0.2 | -0.5 | +350.0% | ||||
| Retail Sales YoY (Aug) | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.2 | +26.3% | ||||
| BoJ Press Conference | — | — | — | — | ||||
| CFTC AUD speculative net positions | — | — | -34.9 | — | ||||
| CFTC BRL speculative net positions | — | — | 66.1 | — | ||||
| CFTC Crude Oil speculative net positions | — | — | 136.6 | — | ||||
| CFTC EUR speculative net positions | — | — | -42.6 | — | ||||
| CFTC GBP speculative net positions | — | — | -58.8 | — | ||||
| CFTC Gold Speculative net positions | — | — | 232 | — | ||||
| CFTC JPY speculative net positions | — | — | 10.8 | — |
Polymarket · Macro Expectations
Crowd read
See where probability is most concentrated, where the crowd remains split, and what repriced most over the past day.
Rates · 13Macro · 10
Strongest view
Rates95%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Yes · $8.4M traded
Closest call
Macro52%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
Yes · $1.6M traded
Largest shift
Macro-7.0 pp in 24hnow 48%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
Yes · $2.0M traded
All market contracts23 tracked
Market State
6 focus factors
Rates
-24.9→
Confidence
54%
Event Risk
-29.2→
Confidence
90%
Breadth
-100.0→
Confidence
60%
Dollar Fx
-44.8→
Confidence
90%
Volatility
+34.9→
Confidence
67%
View all 12 dimensions
Risk Appetite
-26.2→
Confidence
90%
Volatility
+34.9→
Confidence
67%
Rates
-24.9→
Confidence
54%
Growth
+0.9→
Confidence
90%
Inflation
+17.1→
Confidence
90%
Liquidity
—?
Confidence—
Dollar Fx
-44.8→
Confidence
90%
Credit
+4.1→
Confidence
90%
Breadth
-100.0→
Confidence
60%
Positioning
—?
Confidence—
Sentiment
+11.3→
Confidence
56%
Event Risk
-29.2→
Confidence
90%