Risk Appetite
→-9.9
Confidence
90%
Macro
The regime behind the tape
Growth, inflation, rates and liquidity—connected to the releases and market-implied expectations that can change them next.
Macro Regime
Growth
-100.0
OKNo live regime read
Inflation
-62.4
OKNo live regime read
Rates
+93.8
DEGRADEDNo live regime read
Liquidity
—
UNKNOWNNo Live Source
Economic Calendar
12/134
| Date | Time | Event | Imp. | Actual | Est. | Prev. | Surp. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ISM Manufacturing PMI (Oct) | — | 54.6 | 54.5 | — | ||||
| Retail Sales MoM (Sep) | — | 0.2 | 0.4 | — | ||||
| Retail Sales MoM (Sep) | — | 0.4 | 1.3 | — | ||||
| Retail Sales YoY (Sep) | — | 3 | 3.2 | — | ||||
| Retail Sales YoY (Sep) | — | -0.3 | -0.4 | — | ||||
| AT | Unemployment Rate (Oct) | — | 7.7 | 7.1 | — | |||
| procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (Oct) | — | 55.3 | 55.3 | — | ||||
| Bundesbank Nagel Speech | — | — | — | — | ||||
| Fed Goolsbee Speech | — | — | — | — | ||||
| ISM Manufacturing Employment (Oct) | — | 53 | 52.7 | — | ||||
| Inflation Rate YoY (Oct) | — | 2.9 | 2.9 | — | ||||
| S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Oct) | — | 51 | 51.5 | — |
Polymarket · Macro Expectations
Crowd read
See where probability is most concentrated, where the crowd remains split, and what repriced most over the past day.
Rates · 13
All market contracts13 tracked
| Contract | Tracked outcome | 24h | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? ↗ | Yes 97% | +0.1 pp | $9.4M |
| Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? ↗ | Yes 1% | -0.2 pp | $3.7M |
| Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? ↗ | Yes 1% | No 24h change | $3.5M |
| Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? ↗ | Yes 0% | No 24h change | $3.0M |
| Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? ↗ | Yes 0% | No 24h change | $2.8M |
| Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? ↗ | Yes 0% | No 24h change | $3.0M |
| Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? ↗ | Yes 0% | -0.1 pp | $4.2M |
| Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? ↗ | Yes 0% | +0.1 pp | $3.5M |
| Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? ↗ | Yes 0% | No 24h change | $3.3M |
| Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? ↗ | Yes 0% | No 24h change | $4.3M |
| Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? ↗ | Yes 0% | No 24h change | $5.0M |
| Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? ↗ | Yes 0% | No 24h change | $5.3M |
| Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? ↗ | Yes 0% | No 24h change | $4.2M |
Market State
6 focus factors · score −100 (headwind) to +100 (tailwind)
Rates
→+93.8
Confidence
54%
Event Risk
→-100.0MAX
Confidence
90%
Growth
→-100.0MAX
Confidence
90%
Credit
→-86.0
Confidence
90%
Breadth
→+70.4
Confidence
60%
View all 12 dimensions
Risk Appetite
-9.9→
Confidence
90%
Volatility
-4.7→
Confidence
67%
Rates
+93.8→
Confidence
54%
Growth
-100.0→
Confidence
90%
Inflation
-62.4→
Confidence
90%
Liquidity
—?
Confidence—
Dollar Fx
-9.5→
Confidence
90%
Credit
-86.0→
Confidence
90%
Breadth
+70.4→
Confidence
60%
Positioning
—?
Confidence—
Sentiment
+0.9→
Confidence
56%
Event Risk
-100.0→
Confidence
90%