Earnings intelligence
Earnings Signals
A clear read on the latest earnings surprise, its evidence, and what could invalidate the call.
MAR
MARRIOTT INTERNATIONAL INC /MD/FY— · reaction revision
Long bias
EPS beat estimates by 6.3%; guidance raised; one-time EPS benefit identified; fresh reaction +4.1%.
Evidence coverage
75%
Completeness,
not win probability
- Release
- positive
- Guidance
- raised
- Market reaction
- +4.10%
EPS
3.02
Consensus 2.84 USD/share
REVENUE
—
Consensus 6,926.162 USDm
Recent signals
- PWROriginal view: Bullish
Issued
EPS beat estimates by 20.7%; Revenue beat estimates by 8.8%; guidance raised; fresh reaction +7.1%.
- ENTGOriginal view: Bullish
Issued
EPS beat estimates by 19.4%; Revenue beat estimates by 8.7%; guidance raised; one-time EPS benefit identified; fresh reaction +1.7%.
- APHOriginal view: —
Issued —
—
- LHOriginal view: Bullish
Issued
EPS beat estimates by 3.0%; Revenue beat estimates by 1.4%; guidance raised; fresh reaction +8.9%.
- JAZZOriginal view: Bullish
Issued
Revenue beat estimates by 2.9%; guidance raised; fresh reaction +8.3%.
- GEVOriginal view: —
Issued —
—
Today’s reports
There are no higher-impact or watchlist earnings events in today’s live calendar.
Why the model sees it this way
- EPS: 3.02 reported vs 2.84 consensus · above consensus.
- REVENUE: — reported vs 6,926.162 consensus · consensus comparison incomplete.
- Guidance was raised.
- The measured market reaction was +4.10%.
Risks & open questions
- Still missing: standardized eps surprise.
- Still missing: revenue actual and estimate.
- Still missing: reaction spread bps.
Signal track record
ResearchCurrent verdict
The live record is still building
35 directional calls have resolved. That is below the 200-event evidence gate, so results remain preliminary.
Resolved calls
35 / 200
minimum evidence gate
| Horizon | Calls | Direction correct | Net mean | vs drift | 95% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +3 sessions | 51 | 51.0% | -0.17% | +0.77% | -2.45…1.91% |
Evidence history3 revisions
Revision history
- Revision 1 · fast release · abstain ·
- Revision 2 · fast release · positive ·
- Revision 3 · reaction revision · positive ·